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I understand. You want a number. But that would be an unreliable assumption at this stage.
Three trusted media pundits, with better insights than I, predict the Illini will win three football games in 2022.
That’s in line with the disrespectful Vegas odds, which predict, among other upsets, that the eight-game Hoosier club will be a slight favorite in Illinois’ all-important game against Indiana on Sept. 2.
History and built-in bias play a role in these preseason assumptions. Over a 25-year stretch through 2021’s 5-7 campaign, Illinois has averaged eight losses per season. That’s why the CBS poll has Illinois at No. 82, which is 17 above the actual number of Power Five schools. You’ll see Toledo and Liberty and Central Michigan, not to mention Rutgers and Northwestern ranked just ahead of the Illini.
If that’s true, it’s unlikely that Brett Bielema, who has done almost everything right in his attempt at this resurrection, will succeed. Illinois desperately needs to WIN NOW to reinvigorate the fandom and get recruiting going…otherwise it’s becoming an increasingly heavy load. As we’ve already seen, lingering doubts have caused 2023 lineman commitments (Florida-born Rico Jackson and Kentucky-born Jamarion Harkless) to opt out.
The pressure starts early. Let’s start with Wyoming coming to town in 13 days.
This Cowpoke program is decapitated.
Both starting quarterbacks have transferred. So did Khazavian Valaday, 3,274-yard rusher (to Arizona State) and leading playmaker Isaiah Neyor (to Texas).
Gone are four key offensive players, two linebackers with 11 starts, linebacker Chad Muma (142 tackles) and four secondary players. Three full-time starters return.
Of course, the Pokes have some transfers of their own. But it’s an operation that fizzled in 2021, dropping six of eight Mountain West games before beating Kent State 52-38 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
The Illini’s win on Aug. 27 should provide clarity and momentum ahead of Indiana, where both quarterbacks are likely to be transfers, Syracuse’s Tommy DeVito to the Illini against Indiana’s pickup from Missouri, Connor Bazelak.
DeVito and/or second-year Rutgers transfer Art Sitkowski will be called upon to improve the Illini’s pass completion rate, which has barely topped 50 percent in the five years since Wes Lunt graduated.
This is just the second matchup between Illinois and Indiana since 2013 … a “must win” that, along with the subsequent date with Virginia, is the key to this season.
Virginia’s cavalier attitude and returning quarterback Brennan Armstrong were impressive in beating Illinois 42-14 last September.
But the Cavaliers lost six games by an average margin of 16 points … while Ryan Walters revitalized an Illini defense that has made dramatic improvements since late September.
It’s a home game on Sept. 10 and can be won if (1) the Illini stay healthy through Monday’s final showdown and (2) Walters gets upgrades from new starters nose tackle Calvin Avery, cornerback Ta’veon Nicholson and prospects Ezekiel Holmes and Alec Bryant vs. Seth Coleman.
Offensively, coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. was brought in to improve the passing game — hopefully unleashing Isaiah Williams — and thus provide room for a promising ground attack. After completing just 46.9 percent of its passes in 2020, Illinois was considered so one-sided that 1,005-yard rusher Chase Brown faced eight-man fronts too often in 2021.
Final judgment. What follows is as close to a winning number as I’m comfortable with.
Illinois has enough talent to deal with weakened Wyoming, Chattanooga (an FCS school, not among the 131 FBS programs) and while games in late November can change dramatically, a Northwest team that has a streak of six losses in its opener against Nebraska on Aug. 27 in Dublin.
That’s three wins.
An Oct. 1 date at Wisconsin followed by another Iowa defensive unit on Oct. 8 in Champaign aren’t good matchups for the Illini, nor is a Nov. 19 trip to Big Ten defending champion Michigan.
But somewhere along the way — Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan State and Purdue — shouldn’t we expect to see Illinois pull a punch or two like the triumphs at Penn State and Minnesota last season … or the comebacks against Wisconsin and Michigan State in 2019?
Overall, last year’s roster was stronger, with Bielema bringing in all those veterans — Owen Carney Jr., Tony Adams, etc. – to return. When starters Calvin Hart Jr. and Jake Hansen went down, there were quality backups. That may not be the case this year.
But I’m impressed by the physical development of key team members, as seen in near-daily in-person interviews, and the annual August optimism exuded by Bielema’s staff. Yes, projections have to factor in injuries and uncertain depth. Regardless, a six-win season is as attainable as it was in 2019, the UI’s last outing.
If it happens as others are predicting, Bielema and the Illini could be stuck in the mud indefinitely.
Lauren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. He can be reached at ltate@news-gazette.com
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