Brazil’s candidates say they are tough on crime.

But the buck doesn’t stop with him: Compared to Brazil’s 2018 elections, the number of active and retired police and military officers running for public office has increased by 27 percent.

Why is campaigning on crime and violence a popular strategy among candidates at all levels of government? And what does this mean for the Brazilian electorate? To analyze this, my research examines the ways in which politicians campaign for public security. My fieldwork in Brazil during the 2022 election season included over 60 interviews, including with politicians and campaign workers for state and national offices. I also use polling to analyze what drives citizens—particularly progressives—to support “tough on crime” candidates.

Brazilian police killed 27 people in one action. This does not make Rio de Janeiro any safer.

What is the current situation of uncertainty in Brazil and what do the voters want?

According to the annual report of the Brazilian Public Security Forum, in 2021 Brazil accounted for 20.4 percent of the world’s murders, but the country represents only 2.7 percent of the world’s population. The report shows that 78 percent of Brazil’s homicide victims were black, and 50 percent were between the ages of 12 and 29.

Concerns about personal safety can influence voter preferences. I conducted an online survey in Latin America in March 2021 — including 1,500 Brazilians — with a sample designed to approximate the population in terms of gender, age, socioeconomic status, and region. My findings suggest that feelings of insecurity and the belief that crime is driven by gangs can lead even the most progressive voters to support tough-on-crime candidates. Other research shows that victimization has a similar effect and that shocks to the crime rate can increase the vote share of law enforcement candidates.

This makes crime and violence an important issue for Brazilian politicians. Signals to voters that candidates will be tough on crime can boost support at the polls and likely helped Bolsonaro win the 2018 election.

How do politicians campaign on this issue?

Research shows that candidates for the 2022 election are campaigning on public safety in three main ways.

First, the increase in the number of active and retired law enforcement officers applying for positions is a powerful signal. Some candidates register with their professional titles to communicate their position to voters—examples include “Colonel Salema” or “Sergeant Clemente.” Research shows that using professional names can help improve the likelihood of selection. This phenomenon does not only occur among conservatives – in the state of Bahia, a policeman and member of the left-wing Workers’ Party is running for election as “Major Dennis”.

Brazil’s president is rallying his base so he can expand his power

Second, experts from the Network of Security Observatories in Brazil pointed to other, more violent methods that politicians might use. For example, gubernatorial candidates seeking re-election appear to be deploying police at an increased rate to combat gangs. My interviews with politicians and experts show that this is an attempt to show a commitment to tackling crime.

Here’s an example from Rio de Janeiro, where the number of police operations jumped 18 percent in the months leading up to the election compared to the same period in 2021. Rio Governor Claudio Castro, a Bolsonaro supporter, is running for re-election and hailed police operations. He claims they are fighting organized crime groups.

My research suggests that left-wing candidates also work to attract votes from citizens concerned about security issues, including centrist voters and those who believe that typical left-wing approaches are too “soft.” These candidates are shifting their focus away from protecting human rights and preventing crime – instead campaigning for increased investment in the police, including better pay and extra spending on intelligence and technology.

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Some candidates even changed their political priorities entirely. The leading progressive candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro – Marcelo Freixo of the Brazilian Socialist Party – has built his career fighting to protect human rights. But Freixo recently shifted gears, speaking out against drug legalization and why it’s important to “put criminals in jail.”

The focus on crime toughness is troubling

This election season, that focus has seen clear short-term consequences. And it has important long-term implications.

In the short term, the campaign to appear tough on crime has taken a deadly toll – in the month of May alone, 41 people were killed in police operations in Rio de Janeiro, including 22 deaths in the city’s second-deadliest police operation. This underscores the importance of limits on aggressive police operations, which recent research shows can significantly reduce police use of force — and police killings — and lead to a reduction in civilian homicides.

In the long term, experts point to a number of possible negative consequences of the overrepresentation of law enforcement officers in politics. One report suggested that electing city council members with law enforcement careers could increase homicide rates — especially among low-income, non-white men — by favoring the allocation of police and state resources to communities that voted for them. Furthermore, my interviews suggest that law enforcement candidates’ investments in crime “prevention” efforts often include investing in military schools for youth.

More broadly, if Brazilians elect candidates who claim to be tougher on crime, it will send a strong and consistent message to voters. That result would represent continued civilian support for policies that research suggests have little or no demonstrated efficacy — and support for a presidency that has nearly tripled civilian gun ownership in three years. Furthermore, it could point to growing threats to Brazilian democracy, a possible second Bolsonaro presidency, and a continuation of a repressive approach to public security.

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Isabel Laterzo (@IsabelLaterzo) is a PhD candidate in political science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and a Fulbright-Hays DDRA Scholar. The views expressed in this article are those of Isabel Laterzo and do not represent the views of the Fulbright Program, the US Department of Education, or any of the partner organizations.