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This week’s box office preview is a little earlier (and longer) than usual, because on Tuesday evening, there will be previews for four new movies in wide release, as well as the expansion of Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” and Luca Guadagnino’s “Bones and All” nationwide.
Thanksgiving tends to be a rich and robust time at the box office, since people are off work and school on Black Friday (and some on Wednesday), offering the perfect time for a five-day weekend in which movies are a great pastime to do with the family before or after the feast. Because of the family aspect of Thanksgiving, family movies tend to do quite well, and Disney has almost single-handedly monopolized the weekend for many decades now.
Because of this, the strongest release of the extended five-day weekend will probably be Disney Animation Studios’ “Small World,” with the Mouse House trying to take advantage of families looking for something to do together over the long weekend. Directed by Don Hall (“Big Hero 6”) with Qui Nguyen (“Raya and the Last Dragon”), the movie has a voice cast that includes Jake Gyllenhaal, Lucy Liu, Gabrielle Union, Dennis Quaid and Jaboukie Young-White as a family of space explorers called the Clades.
The movie looks fun enough, with trailers that first went out ahead of Pixar’s animated “Lightyear” over the summer, and reviews are generally positive. On top of that, there’s only one other family film still playing in theaters. (Sony’s “Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile.) “Lightyear” was not one of Disney’s bigger hits, opening with $50.6 million and making just $118.3 total in North America, which is somewhat daunting for “Strange World,” since it isn’t based in a popular franchise like “Lightyear” was. Because of that, “Strange World” will probably end up making about $40 million over the holiday in over 3,900 theaters, with $24 to 26 million of that over the three-day weekend.
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Another strong offering this weekend is the fighter jet drama “Devotion,” which Sony will release into over 3,200 theaters on Wednesday. Starring Jonathan Majors (“Lovecraft Country”) and Glen Powell (“Top Gun: Maverick”), it tells the true story of celebrated navy fighter pilot Jesse Brown and the dangerous missions he took on during Korean War. The fact that Powell co-stars in this movie after having such a huge presence in Tom Cruise’s blockbuster summer hit, “Top Gun: Maverick,” bodes well that fans of that sort of aviation adventure might give “Devotion” a look, although we shouldn’t expect it to match “Maverick’s” $700 million domestic take. It’s more likely to make around $15 million over the five-day weekend and probably $10 million on the weekend proper. (Like “The Fabelmans,” “Devotion” premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival, and it’s currently 80% on Rotten Tomatoes with just 30 reviews.)
This past weekend, U.A. Releasing gave Guadagnino’s “Bones and All” a platform release in New York and L.A., and this cannibal love story starring Taylor Russell (“Escape Room”) and Timothée Chalamet (“Dune”) will expand into roughly 2,600 theaters on Wednesday. Even though Guadagnino has built quite a reputation for himself with movies like “Call Me By Your Name” – in which Chalamet had a breakout role – and “Suspiria,” the movie’s 20-something audience has plenty of other options this weekend. “Bones and All” also isn’t necessarily a film you’d take the family to go see, so it’s probably going to end up below $10 million over the five-day weekend with $4 or 5 million of that over the weekend.
The elephant in the room this weekend is whether Netflix will report box office for Rian Johnson’s comedy sequel “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” bringing Daniel Craig back as detective Benoit Blanc. This time he investigates a murder at a gathering of long-time friends and influencers, played by Edward Norton, Janelle Monáe, Kathryn Hahn, Leslie Odom, Jr., Kate Hudson, Dave Bautista and more. Like this past weekend’s “The Menu,” the enormous and varied cast is a big factor creating interest, and that helped 2019’s “Knives Out” make $41.4 million over the five-day Thanksgiving in 3,461 theaters. It would go on to make $165 million in domestic theaters and $147 million overseas. Chances are that those who saw and loved “Knives Out” will want to see “Glass Onion” as soon as possible to avoid any potential spoilers.
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What’s significant about the movie is that, even though it’s only opening in 600 theaters or so, this will be the first time that Netflix has gotten one of their movies into major theater chains like AMC and Regal, who presumably will want to report how well the movie is doing. I fully expect this to be one of Netflix’s biggest theatrical releases with an opening that should put it in direct competition with “Devotion” despite being in 3,000 fewer theaters. I’m thinking it will take fourth place with $7 to 8 million on the three-day weekend and $11 to 12 million including Tuesday through Thursday, but MAJOR CAVEAT: If Netflix doesn’t report the movie’s box office, then putting it in your predictions might mean losing those points.
Also expanding to roughly 600 theaters is Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” starring Gabriel Labelle, Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen and Judd Hirsch, which is currently in the lead to win Best Picture at the Oscars, according to Gold Derby experts. The movie didn’t have a particularly strong platform release, making just $314,000 in four theaters in New York and L.A. That may be a little worrying, but Universal must realize that Spielberg’s name alone should help make it a choice for families in other parts of the nation over Thanksgiving. Despite being in 2,000 fewer theaters, I can see this going neck-and-neck with “Bones and All,” vying for sixth or seventh place with last week’s surprise hit, “The Chosen,” also in the mix.
Despite all the new movies mentioned above, it’s doubtful any of them will defeat Marvel’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” which should win its third weekend with roughly $40 million over the three-day weekend. Searchlight Studio’s dark comedy “The Menu” should hold onto a place in the Top 5, but its placement might depend on the “Glass Onion” in the room.
Check back on Sunday for the weekend box office recap.
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