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- The labor force grew by 195,000 in July as employment and unemployment rose:
The labor force in July was 14,686,000 (up 195,000 from June) – made up of 13,440,000 employed Australians (up 74,000) and 1,246,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 121,000).
- Employment increased in July and full-time employment reached a new record:
Employment in Australia increased by 74,000 to 13,440,000 in July, led by an increase in full-time employment of 8,000 to 8,884,000. This represents the second consecutive all-time record for full-time employment in the first months of the new Albanese government. There was a larger increase in part-time employment by 66,000 to 4,556,000 in July.
- A growing labor force led to an increase in unemployment in July:
1,246,000 Australians were unemployed (8.5% of the workforce) in July, an increase of 121,000 from June with more people looking for full-time work, up 85,000 to 494,000, and also more people looking for part-time work, up 36,000,752,000.
- Unemployment rose to 1.27 million in July, the highest level so far this year:
In addition to the unemployed, 1.27 million Australians (8.6% of the labor force) were underemployed – working part-time but looking for more work, up 44,000 from June.
A total of 2.52 million Australians (17.1% of the labor force) were either unemployed or underemployed in July, up 165,000 from June.
Compared to early March 2020, before the nationwide lockdown, there were almost 400,000 more Australians either unemployed or underemployed in June 2022 (+1.5% points), although total employment (13,440,000 ) is over 500,000 higher than it was before COVID-19 (12,872,000).
Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 7.8% for June was more than double the ABS’ June 2022 forecast of 3.5%. However, ABS figures for June show there were 776,800 workers who worked fewer hours than usual due to illness, personal injury or sick leave, compared with an average of 441,220 for the month of June over the five years to June 2017. until June 2021
This difference, which can be attributed to the Omicron variant of COVID-19, equates to a difference of 335,580 in June 2022 over the June average for the previous five years. If these workers are added to the 493,900 classified as unemployed, it creates a total of 829,480 – or 5.9% of the labor force. In addition, the ABS classifies 6.1% of the labor force (approximately 865,000 workers) as underemployed. Combining these figures adds up to 1.7 million workers, about 12.0% of the workforce.
Roy Morgan Unemployment and Underemployment (2019-2022)
source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – July 2022 Average monthly interviews 5000.
Note: Roy Morgan’s unemployment forecasts are actual data, while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Michele Levine, Roy Morgan CEO, says full-time employment hit a new record in July as a growing labor force led to increases in all three key indicators of full-time employment, part-time employment and unemployment in the same month for the first time this year:
“Roy Morgan’s latest employment estimates for July show that full-time employment rose by 8,000 to 8,884,000 in July, a new record. There was also an increase in part-time employment of 66,000 to 4,556,000, leading total employment to increase by 74,000 to 13,440,000 – the highest level of employment so far this year.
“Employment gains were not the full story in July, however, with a growing labor force also pushing unemployment up by 121,000 to 1,246,000 (8.5% of the labor force). This is in line with the trend of recent months with unemployment in the June quarter averaging 1,235,000 (8.5%).
“A look below the headline numbers shows that much of the employment growth is coming from people aged 50-64. People in this age group are more likely to pay off their home than the average Australian, meaning the pressures of rising inflation and interest rates are hitting this age group particularly hard.
“A look at employment by industry shows that the construction and retail industries added the largest number of new jobs (both full-time and part-time) in July, while the industries with declining employment rates were led by recreation and personal services and finance and insurance.
“The month of July marked a definite fourth wave of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, after previous waves peaked with high numbers of officially reported active cases in January (766,000 on January 14), April (502,000 on April 3) and May ( 386,000 on May 16). The official peak of active cases of COVID-19 in July was 378,000 on July 25, and active cases have declined since then.
“It is important to understand that these numbers are gross underestimates of actual active cases in the community, as there is little incentive for most people to tell the health department they have COVID-19 unless they are eligible for the $750 government payment for a mandatory rest week.
“However, active cases of COVID-19 in the community are really wreaking havoc on labor markets, even if most people who take a week off do not notify the authorities. At Roy Morgan, we had many employees across the business take the mandatory week off work during the recent COVID-19 wave in July, and this situation has been replicated for many of our clients.
“The mandatory one-week isolation period hits hardest for businesses that cannot offer ‘work from home’ for employees. One common response for these firms in particular is to hire new employees to cover the inevitable shortfalls. We have now seen this trend of increased employment during three successive waves of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 during the second wave in March-April, the third wave in May and now the fourth wave in July.
“Although the current winter wave of COVID-19 is now subsiding, there is a possibility that there will be new waves of COVID-19 in the next few months. This uncertainty about the future course of the pandemic makes predicting employment trends over the next few months challenging, although one encouraging sign is that each subsequent wave of COVID-19 has resulted in a lower peak of active cases than the previous one.
Roy Morgan’s Estimates of Unemployed and ‘Underemployed’*
|
Unemployed or “Partly Busy”* |
Unemployed |
Unemployed looking |
“Partly Busy”* |
|||||
|
Full work day |
In absentia |
|||||||
|
2021 |
‘000 |
% |
‘000 |
% |
‘000 |
‘000 |
‘000 |
% |
|
January-March 2021 |
2,971 |
20.6 |
1750 |
12.1 |
717 |
1,033 |
1,222 |
8.5 |
|
April-June 2021 |
2,688 |
18.3 |
1,398 |
9.5 |
574 |
824 |
1,290 |
8.8 |
|
July-September 2021 |
2,573 |
17.7 |
1350 |
9.3 |
547 |
803 |
1,224 |
8.4 |
|
October-December 2021 |
2,586 |
17.8 |
1,301 |
9.0 |
537 |
764 |
1,286 |
8.9 |
|
2022 |
||||||||
|
January-March 2022 |
2380 |
16.4 |
1,187 |
8.2 |
438 |
749 |
1,193 |
8.2 |
|
April-June 2022 |
2,467 |
17.0 |
1,235 |
8.5 |
482 |
753 |
1,232 |
8.5 |
|
months |
||||||||
|
June 2021 |
2,651 |
17.9 |
1,394 |
9.4 |
570 |
824 |
1,257 |
8.5 |
|
July 2021 |
2,756 |
18.8 |
1,422 |
9.7 |
619 |
803 |
1,334 |
9.1 |
|
August 2021 |
2,537 |
17.7 |
1,362 |
9.5 |
492 |
870 |
1,175 |
8.2 |
|
September 2021 |
2,428 |
16.7 |
1,265 |
8.7 |
530 |
735 |
1,163 |
8.0 |
|
October 2021 |
2,547 |
17.8 |
1320 |
9.2 |
471 |
849 |
1,227 |
8.6 |
|
November 2021 |
2,536 |
17.5 |
1330 |
9.2 |
583 |
748 |
1,206 |
8.3 |
|
December 2021 |
2,676 |
18.2 |
1,252 |
8.5 |
557 |
695 |
1,424 |
9.7 |
|
January 2022 |
2,427 |
16.6 |
1,201 |
8.2 |
464 |
737 |
1,226 |
8.4 |
|
February 2022 |
2,357 |
16.3 |
1,227 |
8.5 |
463 |
764 |
1,130 |
7.8 |
|
March 2022 |
2,356 |
16.2 |
1,133 |
7.8 |
387 |
746 |
1,223 |
8.4 |
|
April 2022 |
2,641 |
18.1 |
1,411 |
9.7 |
559 |
852 |
1230 |
8.4 |
|
May 2022 |
2,408 |
16.7 |
1,169 |
8.1 |
477 |
692 |
1,239 |
8.6 |
|
June 2022 |
2,351 |
16.3 |
1,125 |
7.8 |
409 |
716 |
1,226 |
8.5 |
|
July 2022 |
2,516 |
17.1 |
1,246 |
8.5 |
494 |
752 |
1270 |
8.6 |
*The labor force includes the employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
This study by Roy Morgan for Australia unemployment and “partly occupied”* is based on weekly interviews of 846,638 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and July 2022 and includes 7,436 telephone and online interviews in July 2022. *The “underemployed” are those people who work part-time or freelance who are looking for more work.
Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia unemployed and understaffed; who and where they are and the challenges they face as they seek employment opportunities.
Visit the Roy Morgan online store to purchase job profiles including for Australians who are busy, unemployed, understaffed, employed part-time, employed full time, retired, studying and many others.
Roy Morgan Research see ABS estimates of unemployment
Note: Roy Morgan’s unemployment forecasts are actual data, while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Roy Morgan Research see ABS estimates of unemployment
Note: Roy Morgan’s unemployment forecasts are actual data, while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
Note: Roy Morgan’s unemployment forecasts are actual data, while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.
For comments or more information, please contact:
Roy Morgan – Inquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
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