Australian unemployment rises to 9.2% in October after final COVID-19 restrictions end

Unemployment rose 1.1 percentage points to 9.2% in October, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment figures. The increase in unemployment was driven by a decline in full-time jobs, which led to a decline in overall employment, even though part-time employment reached a record high.

Unemployment in October rose by 160,000 to 1.36 million Australians (9.2% of the labor force), although underemployment was almost unchanged at 1.55 million (10.5% of the labor force). Total unemployment and underemployment rose by 152,000 to 2.92 million (19.7% of the labor force).

• The labor force fell by 77,000 in October due to a large drop in full-time employment:

The labor force in October was 14,830,000 (down 77,000 from September) – made up of 13,468,000 employed Australians (down 237,000) and 1,362,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 160,000).

• Employment falls in October as full-time employment declines:

Employment in Australia fell by 237,000 to 13,468,000 in October. The decline was driven by a 309,000 drop in full-time employment to 8,572,000, although part-time employment rose to a new record, up 72,000 to 4,896,000, as all COVID-19 restrictions ended in mid October.

1,362,000 Australians were unemployed (9.2% of the workforce) in October, up 160,000 from September with more people looking for part-time work up 170,000 to 837,000, although there were slightly fewer people looking for full-time work, down 17,000 to 525,000 .

In addition to the unemployed, 1.55 million Australians (10.5% of the labor force) were underemployed – working part-time but looking for more work, down 8,000 from September.

A total of 2.92 million Australians (19.7% of the labor force) were either unemployed or underemployed in October, up 152,000 from September – the highest total figure for over 18 months since February 2021.

Compared to early March 2020, before the nationwide lockdown, there were more than 850,000 more Australians either unemployed or underemployed in October 2022 (+4% points), although total employment (13,468,000) is about 600,000 higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).

Roy Morgan’s underemployment figure of 10.5% was over 4% higher than ABS estimate of 6.0% for September. However, ABS figures for September show there were 568,400 workers who worked fewer hours than usual due to illness, personal injury or sick leave, compared with an average of 478,000 for the month of September over the five years to September 2017. until September 2021

This difference in the number of people who worked fewer hours due to illness, personal injury or sick leave attributable to the Omicron variant of COVID-19 equates to a difference of 90,400 in September 2022 over the average for the month of September for the previous five years. If these workers are added to the approximately 846,000 workers the ABS classifies as underemployed, this creates a total of 936,400 – equivalent to 6.6% of the workforce.

When the ABS unemployed (3.5% of the labor force, 499,400 workers) and this higher-than-usual level of underemployment (6.6% of the labor force, roughly 936,400 workers) are combined, these figures add up to 1, 44 million workers, about 10.1% of the workforce.

Roy Morgan Unemployment and Underemployment (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – October 2022 Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actuals, while ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

*The labor force includes the employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

This study by Roy Morgan for Australia unemployment and “partly occupied”* based on weekly interviews of 866,037 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and October 2022 and includes 7,404 telephone and online interviews in October 2022. *The “underemployed” are those people who work part-time or freelance who are looking for more work.

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Source: Roy Morgan One source October 2006 – October 2022 Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actuals, while ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single source January 2000 – October 2022 Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actuals, while ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Roy Morgan Single source April 1995 – October 2022. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actuals, while ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Roy Morgan’s unemployment forecast is derived from a cross-sectional survey of people aged 14+ across Australia. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment forecasts in Australia.

Households selected for the ABS survey are interviewed monthly for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Follow-up interviews are conducted over the phone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, at the time of the survey, they were actively looking for work in the four weeks to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work during the reference week.

The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, the person worked one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if the person worked one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.

Australian Bureau of Statistics unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons, the Australian Bureau of Statistics unemployment estimates are different from Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan’s concern about the ABS unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in a 2012 letter to the Australian Financial Review, which has not been published.