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Topline
Many awards season hopefuls underperformed at the box office this year despite faring well critically, resulting in losses for studios and fueling hopes that nabbing a few Oscars might bring audiences — and their money — to the theaters.
Brad Pitt and Diego Calva in ‘Babylon.’ (Scott Garfield/Paramount Pictures vía AP)
© 2022 PARAMOUNT PICTURES. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Key Facts
Some of the films favored to win Oscars this season are big-budget productions that failed to even come close to making a profit for studios — sparking concern about whether there’s still an audience for prestige dramas, or if the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise of streaming did fatal damage to movie theaters.
She Said, a film chronicling the New York Times investigation exposing Harvey Weinstein’s record of sexual abuse, was touted by Variety as Best Picture worthy ahead of its November theatrical release — but it bombed, grossing $2.2 million domestically in its opening weekend and $5.8 million domestically and $11.8 million worldwide to date, paling in comparison to its $32 million budget.
Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical ode to the power of filmmaking, The Fabelmans, opened to critical acclaim and Oscar buzz, boasting a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score and five Golden Globe nominations, but has grossed $13.3 million domestically and $15.4 million worldwide against a $40 million budget, a disappointing performance for Spielberg, one of the most commercially successful directors of all time.
Damien Chazelle and Paramount Pictures took a big swing with Babylon, a three-hour, $80 million epic set in 1920s Hollywood, but the film underperformed both commercially and critically: it grossed $4.85 million in its first four days and $13.5 million to date, far behind the $250 million worldwide gross it reportedly needs to break even, and has a 55% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
Todd Field’s TÁR was hailed by critics as a nuanced take on cancel culture and a showcase for star and Best Actress frontrunner Cate Blanchett, but the film grossed just $5.7 million against a $35 million production and marketing budget.
Initially an awards hopeful, Amsterdam not only flopped at the box office but fared poorly with critics — the film, which cost $80 million to produce, could lose nearly $100 million for New Regency, and has a 33% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
It’s unclear exactly why these movies haven’t attracted large audiences, and a number of theories have been floated by studio executives and observers: the movies might be too depressing for audiences who want escapism, the pandemic might have done long-term damage to theatergoing, and streaming movies and television at home could be a more attractive, and comfortable, option for audiences.
Contra
A few awards contenders are among the biggest blockbusters of the year — and all time. Avatar: The Way of Water, which director James Cameron said needs $2 billion to break even, has led the box office since it opened last month. It’s made more than $516 million domestically and $1.7 billion worldwide, inching closer to its break-even point — and making it the seventh-highest grossing movie of all time (so far). The Avatar sequel is up for two Golden Globes: Best Motion Picture-Drama and Best Director for Cameron. Avatar’s worldwide numbers just surpassed the other mega blockbuster up for awards, summer box office hit Top Gun: Maverick, which has grossed more than $718 million domestically and $1.48 billion worldwide, according to Box Office Mojo. The Top Gun sequel will face off against Avatar for Best Motion Picture-Drama, and both films are hoping to hear their names called on Oscar nominations morning.
What To Watch For
Who will take home Golden Globes, (possibly) paving the way for Oscars success? The first major televised awards show of the season airs Tuesday, January 10 on NBC, its first live broadcast in two years. The Banshees of Inisherin leads film contenders with eight Globe nominations, including for Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy. Everything Everywhere All at Once is close behind with six nominations, and Babylon and The Fabelmans have five each. Awards season only picks up steam from there — the morning after the Globes, nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards will be announced. Both the Globes and SAG awards are considered solid predictors for the Academy Awards. Oscar nominations will be unveiled on January 24, and the ceremony is set to take place on March 12.
Surprising Fact
Everything Everywhere All At Once became A24’s biggest box office hit ever. It’s the studio’s first film to gross more than $100 million worldwide — it’s grossed $103.9 million worldwide and $70 million domestically to date. It became a sleeper hit: the film passed the $100 million mark in July, months after its March release, growing in popularity thanks to word of mouth, according to Variety. The multiverse comedy-drama has glowing reviews and accolades to match its financial success: it boasts a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes and six Golden Globe nominations, including Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy and a Best Actress nod for Michelle Yeoh.
Tangent
The January box office is off to a strong start thanks to Avatar: The Way of Water, which brought in $45 million domestically over the weekend, and horror-comedy film M3GAN, which surpassed expectations to gross $30.2 million in its opening weekend. Typically a quiet season for moviegoing, this weekend’s box office numbers are up nearly 70% over the same weekend in 2022, according to The Hollywood Reporter. M3GAN was originally expected to gross between $17 million and $20 million domestically, but a strong marketing campaign made the titular doll go viral on social media: she crashed actress Allison Williams’s The Tonight Show starring Jimmy Fallon interview and inspired plenty of viral TikToks imitating the strange dance the killer doll does in the film.
Further Reading
Highbrow Films Aimed at Winning Oscars Are Losing Audiences (The New York Times)
‘She Said’ Bombs: Why Aren’t Awards Season Movies Resonating With Audiences? (Variety)
The Golden Globes’ Big Comeback: What’s At Stake, Who’s Presenting And How Did The Awards Emerge From Controversy (Forbes)
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