India’s demographics are at a crossroads: The elderly may outnumber the young

States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are expected to see a larger elderly population than the young by 2036. “Bihar and Uttar Pradesh saw an increase in the ratio of young population to total population till 2021 and then it is expected to start to decrease. These two states, along with Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, are expected to have over half (52 percent) of the country’s youth,” the report said.

Citing findings from the 2020 Population Projections Technical Group report compiled by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the report said that youth in the 15-29 age group constituted 27.2 percent of the population for 2021, which is expected to decrease to 22.7 by 2036.

The share of the population under the age of 15 is expected to decrease, and the elderly population is expected to increase, the report said. “The youth population is expected to increase initially but start to decline in the second half of the period 2011-2036. The total youth population increased from 222.7 million in 1991 to 333.4 million in 2011 and it is expected to reach 371.4 million by 2021 and then decline to 345.5 million by 2036,” the report said.

For Kerala, where the youth population peaked earlier than other states, the share of the elderly population in the total population is projected to be 16.5 percent compared to 22.1 percent of the youth population in 2021. The share of the elderly in the total population (22.8 percent) in Kerala is then projected to surpass the share of the young (19.2 percent) by 2036. Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are also projected to have more elderly than young populations by 2036, it said. in the report.

A greater proportion of young people now will lead to a greater proportion of older people in the population in the future. “This will create demand for better healthcare facilities and development of welfare schemes/programmes for the elderly,” the report said.

Experts said that the rise in the proportion of the elderly population will put pressure on the social security and welfare systems and the next 4-5 years should be put to good use to accelerate the creation of productive jobs. “We have not used this period to create more productive employment to increase savings and growth because that is the main demographic dividend. This window is closing. In the case of the southern states, where the dependency ratio is projected to increase, then that means how are you going to support the dependent population and what implications will that have on things like Social Security for the elderly, pensions and health care as longevity increases . This is the conversation happening in developed economies. The share of elderly people in the population is starting to increase, unlike the young working age group. Given the fact that people are usually in informal employment that does not provide social security, then who will step in to provide social security that further burdens the state. Those would be the issues,” said Radhichka Kapoor, Senior Visiting Fellow, ICRIER.

The ratio of youth to the total population increased from 26.6% in 1991 to 27.9% in 2016 and is then expected to start a downward trend and reach 22.7% by 2036. On the contrary, the share of the elderly population relative to the total population increased from 6.8% in 1991 to 9.2% in 2016 and is expected to reach 14.9% in 2036.

“We should have seen production expand. We missed it. We’re still looking to increase our share of manufacturing employment, which we need to continue to do because even for people who are currently looking for work and in the current workforce, when they’re going to retire and the share of older people starts to rise in many populous states, then it will be like a ticking time bomb. In the next 4-5 years, if active labor market policies are adopted to accelerate the creation of productive jobs, then we can at least try to ensure that the situation does not worsen,” added Kapoor.

According to the 2022 edition of the United Nations World Population Projections (WPP), released on Monday, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. The report said that a sustained decline in birth rates has led to an increased concentration of the working-age population (between 25 and 64 years) and this change in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”.

However, the UN report also notes that the elderly population is increasing both in number and as a share of the total population, with the share of the world’s population aged 65 or over expected to rise from 10 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2050, warning countries with aging populations to take steps to adapt public programs to the growing share of older people, including by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by creating universal health care and pension systems long term care.