Gotabaya’s ‘hero’s return’ is a sign that Rajapaksa still has a chance in Lankan politics

If former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had any fears about returning to Sri Lanka after his humiliating departure from the country on July 13, the welcome that awaited him at the Bandaranaike International Airport on the night of September 2 should have allayed those fears.

welcome to “hero”

Many senior members of Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Poduyana Peramuna Party (SLPP) were on hand to welcome him and former first lady Loma Rajapaksa at the country’s main airport, located about 32 km from Colombo. They included several cabinet ministers and dozens of other SLPP parliamentarians. Photos and images released by a minister’s media unit show a smiling former president and his wife surrounded by SLPP politicians.

From the airport, Gotabaya and his wife were taken in a heavily guarded military convoy to a government bungalow in the posh suburb of Colombo 7, home to many of the country’s elite and foreign diplomats. The bungalow will be his new home and has been given to him by the state. Gotabaya is entitled to it and all the other privileges that flow from being a former president. He will also have his own personal protection team comprising commandos from the police and the army.

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A stream of visitors visited Gotabaya from the day after his return. His brother, former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, arrived first. Other notables who have visited since then include the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, provincial governors, former military top brass and religious leaders.

Although it has since split into several different groups, the core of the SLPP remains fiercely loyal to the Rajapaksas. They greeted Gotabaya more as a conquering hero than as a president who had been forced out of his country by months of street protests. He was the first executive president in Sri Lanka’s history to step down before the end of his term.

Is there a second coming?

Some in the party even urged him to return to active politics. At a press conference prior to Gotabaya’s arrival, two SLPP MPs told journalists that they were open to the possibility of Gotabaya Rajapaksa becoming Prime Minister. There is an open way for Gotabaya to do so if he wishes. The SLPP has several seats on the “National List” of unelected members who are nominated to serve in Parliament. If any of them resigned, it would pave the way for Gotabaya to be appointed to replace them and the SLPP to nominate him as Prime Minister. One national-list MP, Seetha Arambepola, told the media this week that she was ready to offer her seat to the president. However, she said the matter had not been formally discussed.

However, others in the SLPP believe that it is highly unlikely that the former president would wish to re-enter national politics given all that has happened in the two and a half years he has been president. Even before he was forced to step down, Gotabaya publicly stated that he had no desire to run for another presidential term. This was in the midst of street protests against him, and it was clear that he did not believe he could win re-election if he contested.

The arrests pave the way for the Rajapaksas’ return

But Gotabaya’s comeback is yet another example of the remarkable political tenacity the Rajapaksa family has demonstrated in the face of overwhelming odds. For many months, street protests echoed with slogans of “Gota Go Home”, “Rajapaksas Go Home” and even “Rajapaksas Go To Jail”. People were furious at the way the Rajapaksa government handled the country’s economic crisis and the numerous corruption allegations involving the Rajapaksa family. When armed thugs allied to former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa attacked peaceful protesters near the presidential secretariat on May 9, much of the country erupted in retaliatory violence, with the Rajapaksa family properties targeted. Even their ancestral home was set on fire and protesters destroyed a museum built to honor the parents of the Rajapaksa brothers. For weeks afterward, no one connected to the Rajapaksa family could appear in public and remained mostly in hiding.

This has changed dramatically since the SLPP-dominated parliament elected Ranil Wickremesinghe as president on 20 July. Wickremesinghe is considered a close ally of the Rajapaksas. Also, since he assumed the presidency, the police have been hunting down those involved in the “Aragalaya” (struggle) that forced Gotabaya to resign. Arrests are made daily and many remain in pre-trial detention. Police said most of the arrests were related to attacks on SLPP politicians, as well as storming and “illegal occupation” of government buildings – namely the President’s Office, the Prime Minister’s Office and the official residences of the President and Prime Minister.

Suspects have also been arrested for setting fire to President Wickremesinghe’s personal residence on the night of July 9. Many activists who were at the forefront of the protests were also arrested.

Gradually the Rajapaksas retreated and the SLPP used its influence to try to restore its battered image. The party released photos of former finance minister Basil Rajapaksa, who is its national organizer, meeting with party officials. Senior members of the SLPP have acknowledged that Basil Rajapaksa remains firmly in control of the party he founded. Meanwhile, Mahinda Rajapaksa was also meeting with party officials about reorganization efforts and was more often in public. On September 3, he was the chief guest when the SLPP launched its ‘Leadership Academy for Political Excellence’ in Colombo. But the most visible is Mahinda’s eldest son and heir apparent Namal. In the past few weeks, he met with foreign diplomats, led meetings and gave interviews to the media.

The fate of the SLPP hangs in the balance

The wholehearted embrace of the Rajapaksas by the ruling SLPP is not without risk. The party continues to insist that its core Sinhala Buddhist base is intact and the Rajapaksas are still hugely popular, especially in rural Sri Lanka. Yet she refused to put that claim to the test, saying that the immediate problems of the people must be addressed before elections are even thought of. The current parliament was elected in August 2020 for a five-year term, so SLPP politicians argue that since the people gave them a mandate for five years, the parliament should serve its full term. Under the current constitution, parliament can only be dissolved in two ways before the full completion of its mandate. One way is for a resolution to dissolve parliament to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the 225-member legislature. The other option is for the president to dissolve the parliament after two and a half years of its mandate. Accordingly, President Wickremesinghe will be able to dissolve Parliament after March next year.

Also Read: Sri Lanka: Public anger palpable as Gotabaya actually walks away

The President was reported to have assured the SLPP that he has no plans to pursue this second option. Yet, given that Wickremesinghe’s economic policies diverge significantly from the SLPP, there are fears that it is only a matter of time before the relationship breaks down. The SLPP also appears to recognize that calls for an early general election may become louder if the economic crisis worsens in the coming months. He begins his recovery operation with this in mind. Only time will tell if these efforts will pay off or if the party will face political annihilation at the ballot box.