First-time voters weigh in on what they never knew – Turkey without Erdogan

ISTANBUL, July 5 (Reuters) – Six million first-time voters are poised to effectively decide whether to extend President Tayyip Erdogan’s rule into a third decade or choose something they have never known – a Turkey under another leader.

Less than 12 months before what may be the biggest election in the country’s modern history, a large majority of young Turks say they want change but remain somewhat skeptical that the opposition can properly improve jobs, schools and freedoms such as of the word.

With about 12 percent of all voters in the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, the youth will be crucial in what is shaping up to be a very tight race for Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party, pollsters say.

Interviews with nearly a dozen Turks between the ages of 18 and 23, from the capital Istanbul to central Anatolia, show that fairness, immigration, merit-based jobs and transparent economic policies are top of mind.

“I’m not completely at peace with my decision, but I think I’ll choose the best of the worst (and support the opposition),” said Damla, 19, a history student in Istanbul, who declined to give her last name.

Economic turmoil and rising inflation have increased her living expenses, although she lives with her family and doesn’t go out with friends as often.

“I feel like I’m not living, I’m just trying to survive,” Damla said. “If the Justice and Development Party loses this election, the new government should still feel the pressure of the people on it.”

Polls are changing but suggest Erdogan will lose by a narrow margin and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) will relinquish power in parliament.

However, an informal opposition coalition has not announced a presidential candidate, leaving some young voters unconvinced, and the authoritarian Erdogan has been on a long winning streak since taking the helm in 2003.

The president has steered a traditionally secular society in an Islamist direction, turning Turkey into a regional military power and using the courts to crush dissent.

He now faces an uphill election battle, largely because of his own unorthodox economic policies, including interest rate cuts that sent the pound to historic lows and inflation to a 24-year high of 78.62% in June. Read more

MOTIVATION

The so-called “Generation Z” make up about 13 million of the 62.4 million Turks who are due to vote next year, according to statistics and polling services. Six million will be eligible to vote for the first time.

Murat Gezici, head of polling firm Gezici, said young voters are generally irritated by the government, but are not bound by a particular ideology and do not fully trust the opposition.

Surveys show that Gen Z voters aged 18-25 strongly oppose restrictions on lifestyle, free expression and media. “80% of this generation will not vote for the Justice and Development Party,” he said.

Yusuf, 18 and another first-time voter, said most of the world’s economies have fallen on hard times since the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

“I think the person who is running our country right now is the best and most suitable leader…I will vote for the Justice and Development Party because they are making plans to make people comfortable,” he said.

“The economy may not be doing well, but that’s the case in all countries.

Turkey’s youth unemployment rate was 20% in April, official data showed, compared with an OECD average of 10.87%.

Sociologists say the motivation of young voters is a wild card, contributing to the unpredictability of elections. That may depend on who a group of six opposition parties – which have agreed on a common policy – chooses to run against Erdogan.

“Young people want change,” said Mehmet Ali Kulat, chairman of MAK Consulting, whose research shows 70 percent of 18-29-year-olds support the opposition.

He said younger voters tend to compare their economic prospects with foreign peers, while older voters look more to infrastructure investments such as roads and hospitals.

Helin, 21, said her living conditions had worsened because of the government’s policies, so she voted for the opposition, but was nevertheless concerned that their proposals might not effectively tackle the problems in current migration policy, nor minority rights.

“I believe that a change of power would at least solve the immediate problems,” she said by phone from Ankara.

Additional reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Darren Butler

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